Rangers-Rays Wild Card Game 2 preview: pitching matchups, x-factor, odds, analysis

June 15, 2024

When the Rays stormed their way to a 13-0 start this season, they committed four errors across those 13 games.

On Tuesday, they matched that in the first six innings.

Four errors. Four errors! And big ones.

Meanwhile, certified Big-Game Guy Jordan Montgomery was making diving grabs on the infield grass and tossing seven shutout innings for a 4-0 Rangers win to put the 99-win Rays on the ropes. Tampa will need back-to-back wins at Tropicana Field on Wednesday and Thursday to avoid an early exit.

Rays starter Tyler Glasnow was not sharp, and his defense did him no favors. Things began unraveling in the fifth. Corey Seager ripped a double that nearly cleared the fence (and just as nearly was caught by center fielder José Siri). Robbie Grossman walked. Then came a 109.9 mph Adolis García screamer off Glasnow’s leg. Glasnow stayed in, then hurled a run-scoring wild pitch to the backstop. He escaped further damage in the fifth. But more trouble was ahead. Glasnow started the sixth inning with two walks, and then Seager greeted reliever Chris Devenski with a first-pitch single. One run scored. Another scored when Siri airmailed the third baseman. Sloppy, sloppy sloppy.

And now the Rangers are firmly in the driver’s seat.

AL Wild Card Game 2: Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

Start time: 3:08 p.m. ET on ABC

Pitching matchup: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Zach Eflin

Game 2 pitching matchup

Rangers: RHP Nathan Eovaldi
2023 stats: 12-5, 3.63 ERA, 144 innings, 132 strikeouts, 1.14 WHIP

Tell me three months ago that Eovaldi would be on the bump with a chance to send the Rangers to the ALDS, and I’d have considered it a done deal. He was an All-Star taking the ball every fifth day and dealing despite a noticeable velocity dip. But that dip has persisted. Eovaldi’s average fastball in May was 96. It’s been 94 since then.

Eovaldi returned from a right forearm strain in early September and was lit up for a 9.30 ERA in six starts the rest of the way, dogged by walks and homers and short outings. Eovaldi hasn’t recorded an out in the sixth inning since July 18, which was also the last time he threw more than 86 pitches in a start.

So, Eovaldi isn’t out there to go the distance in Game 2. But this is a guy who pitched brilliantly in the 2018 postseason and was strong again (aside from an ALCS relief outing) in the 2021 playoffs. The Rangers will have a rested bullpen, thanks to Montgomery, and if Eovaldi is anywhere close to full strength, he’s a handful for hitters. His splitter-cutter combo baffles lefties. And maybe his heater will have a little more giddy-up under the bright lights of October the Trop during a day game.

Rays: RHP Zach Eflin
2023 stats: 16-8, 3.50 ERA, 177 2/3 innings, 186 strikeouts, 1.02 WHIP

Eflin may not get past five innings, either, as he’s topped 90 pitches just four times in his past 17 starts, but he has been a much-needed rock for the short-handed Rays rotation this season. His worst and shortest starts of the season:

June 12 vs. Oakland: 4 2/3 innings, 4 earned runs
July 16 vs. Kansas City: 3 innings, 5 earned runs
July 26 vs. Miami: 4 innings. 5 earned runs
Aug. 13 vs. Cleveland: 3 innings, 6 runs

All against some of the lowest-scoring teams in baseball. How about that! Scribble those four starts off of his ledger — which won’t work in an arbitration hearing but might work here — and we’re talking about a guy who had a 2.70 ERA across 163 innings. Regardless, Eflin has had a wonderful season. He doesn’t walk anybody. His six-pitch mix (seven if you count the sweeper he threw seven times) gets a lot of chase. And he encourages a lot of weak contact.

Game 2 X-factor

Rangers SS Corey Seager

The only hitter in baseball better against right-handed pitching this season than Seager was Shohei Ohtani, who OPSed 1.132 against righties to Seager’s 1.075. They call that good company. Seager, who singled, doubled, walked and reached on an error in Game 1, is 3 for 7 in his career against Eflin, with a homer, a double and a walk. Eflin’s path to victory starts with slowing Seager.

Corey Seager lands on second after Jose Siri couldn't make this catch pic.twitter.com/XyJRmz28to

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) October 3, 2023

Notable quotable

Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe was asked before Game 1 about going head-to-head with his brother Josh in this series:

“We can be friends on Saturday,” he said, laughing. “Side story, yes, Josh actually asked me to play in a golf tournament with him and Eflin and (Jake) Diekman. I told him if they strike me out or hit me with a pitch, I’m not playing.”

So there’s even more on the line in Game 2 than you knew.

(Top Photo of Eovaldi: Steph Chambers / Getty Images))

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